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Systematic Bias of Area 1 real-time load #129

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claytonpbarrows opened this issue Feb 3, 2021 · 0 comments
Open

Systematic Bias of Area 1 real-time load #129

claytonpbarrows opened this issue Feb 3, 2021 · 0 comments

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@claytonpbarrows
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claytonpbarrows commented Feb 3, 2021

From @crphilbrick

PROBLEM: Real-time (RT) loads for Area 1 are approximately 140 MW lower than day-ahead (DA) loads in all hours. Also, RT loads show a significant dip at the peak of each day.

RESOLUTION: RT loads for Area 1 have been set equal to DA loads. The original RT loads are still available in the data, but are not used.

JUSTIFICATION: Because load forecasts are typically quite accurate (e.g., <3% MSE) and because forecast errors of wind and solar are typically much larger than load forecast errors.

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