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cal_Threat_Score.f90
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subroutine cal_threat_score(rainobs, rainfcst, num_stn, rs1, rs2, HS, MS, FS, ts )
real,dimension(num_stn):: rainobs, rainfcst
real rs1, rs2, ts
real HS, MS, FS
HS=0
MS=0
FS=0
do k= 1, num_stn
if (rainobs(k) >= rs1 .and. rainobs(k)<=rs2 )then
! if(rainfcst(k) >= rs1 .and. rainfcst(k) <= rs2)then
if(rainfcst(k) >= rs1 )then
HS=HS+1 ! 正确 ！
endif
if(rainfcst(k) < rs1)then
MS=MS+1 ! 漏报 ！
endif
else if (rainobs(k)< rs1 )then
if(rainfcst(k) >= rs1 )then
FS=FS+1 ! 空报 ！
endif
endif
enddo
if ( HS+MS+FS .ne. 0)then
ts=HS/(HS+MS+FS)
else
ts=0
endif
end subroutine
!==========================================================================================
subroutine cal_threat_score_bak(rainobs, rainfcst, num_stn, rs1, rs2, HS, MS, FS, ts )
real,dimension(num_stn):: rainobs, rainfcst
real rs1, rs2, ts
real HS, MS, FS
HS=0
MS=0
FS=0
do k= 1, num_stn
if (rainfcst(k) >= rs1 .and. rainfcst(k)<=rs2 )then
if(rainobs(k) >= rs1 )then
HS=HS+1 ! 正确 ！
endif
if(rainobs(k) < rs1)then
FS=FS+1 ! 空报 ！
endif
endif
if ( rainfcst(k)<rs1 .and. rainobs(k) > rs1 ) MS=MS+1 ! 漏报 ！
enddo
if ( HS+MS+FS .ne. 0)then
ts=HS/(HS+MS+FS)
else
ts=0
endif
end subroutine
!==========================================================================================
subroutine cal_threat_score_bin(rainobs, rainfcst, num_stn, rs0, HS, MS, FS, ts )
real,dimension(num_stn):: rainobs, rainfcst
real rs0, ts
real HS, MS, FS, DS
HS=0
MS=0
FS=0
DS=0
do k= 1, num_stn
if (rainobs(k) > rs0 .and. rainfcst(k) > rs0) HS=HS+1 ! a
if (rainobs(k) <= rs0 .and. rainfcst(k) > rs0) FS=FS+1 ! b
if (rainobs(k) > rs0 .and. rainfcst(k) <= rs0) MS=MS+1 ! c
if (rainobs(k) <= rs0 .and. rainfcst(k) <= rs0) DS=DS+1 ! d
enddo
ts= (HS+DS)/(HS+MS+FS+DS)
end subroutine
! an event is forecast and the event occurs (a)
! an event is forecast and the event does not occur (b)
! an event is not forecast and the event occurs (c)
! an event is not forecast and the event does not occur (d)
! The Threat Score (TS) or Critical Success Index (CSI) combines Hit Rate and False Alarm Ratio into one score for low frequency events. It is calculated as follows:
! TS = CSI = a/(a+b+c)
!==========================================================================================
subroutine cal_threat_score_v2(rainobs, rainfcst, num_stn, rs1, rs2, HS, MS, FS, ts )
real,dimension(num_stn):: rainobs, rainfcst
real rs1, rs2, ts
real HS, MS, FS, DS
HS=0
MS=0
FS=0
DS=0
do k= 1, num_stn
if (rainfcst(k) >= rs1 .and. rainfcst(k)<=rs2 )then
if(rainobs(k) >= rs1 )then
HS=HS+1 ! 正确 ！ a
endif
if(rainobs(k) < rs1)then
FS=FS+1 ! 空报 ！ b
endif
endif
if ( rainfcst(k)<rs1 .and. rainobs(k) > rs1 ) MS=MS+1 ! 漏报 ！ c
if ( rainfcst(k)<rs1 .and. rainobs(k) < rs1 ) DS=DS+1 ! 正确 ！ d
enddo
if ( HS+MS+FS .ne. 0)then
!ts=HS/(HS+MS+FS)
! ts=(HS+DS)/(HS+MS+FS+DS)
else
ts=0
endif
end subroutine
! subroutine QTS(ts,H,F,M,C)
! implicit none
! integer ::H,F,M,C !命中，空报，漏报，正确否定
! real ::ts
!
! ts=H/(H+F+M)
! return
! end subroutine
subroutine cal_fcst_verification(rainobs, rainfcst, num_stn, s1, s2, rr)
real, dimension(num_stn):: rainobs, rainfcst
real s1, s2, s3, rr, sxy, sxx, syy
s1=0
s2=0
s3=0
do k=1, num_stn
s1=s1+abs( rainobs(k)-rainfcst(k) )/ real(num_stn) ! 绝对平均误差
s2= s2 + ( rainobs(k)-rainfcst(k) )**2.0 ! 均方差
sxy= sxy + rainobs(k)*rainfcst(k)
sxx= sxx + rainobs(k)*rainobs(k)
syy= syy + rainfcst(k)*rainfcst(k)
enddo
s2 = sqrt( s2/real(num_stn) )
rr = sxy/( sqrt(sxx)*sqrt(syy) ) ! 相关系数
endsubroutine