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+++ title = "What if?" +++

Without Pennsylvania and North Carolina combined

In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes by 80,555 and Trump won North Carolina's 15 electoral votes by 74,483. These were the too largest margins in 2020 in count. As between the two candidates1, disregarding third party candidates, the margin in Pennsylvania was 1.18% in favor of Harris and the margin in North Carolina was 1.37% in favor of Trump.

In 2024, due to the use of the 2020 Census for apportionment, Pennsylvania will have 19 electoral votes and North Carolina will have 16.

Without Harris wins in both states, the winning scenarios for Harris narrow from 70 to just five combinations of the remaining swing states.

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
      <th style = "text-align: right;">States won by Harris </th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Electoral Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Harris Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Trump Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Result</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, GA, MI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">47</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">272</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">266</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, GA, MI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">48</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">273</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">265</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, GA, MI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">58</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">283</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">255</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

All Harris victory scenarios without both Pennsylvania and North Carolina require winning both Georgia (16 votes) and Michigan (15 votes) plus Nevada (6 votes) and one of Arizona (11 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes) or, without Nevada both Arizona and Wisconsin."

<img src="/assets/img/maps/no_pa_nc.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">

Harris at the margin

These states had Harris's widest and narrowest margins1 of victory—Georgia 0.24% and Michigan 2.83%. Failing to win Georgia again if 11,780 votes were to go to Trump2

Harris wins without Georgia

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
      <th style = "text-align: right;">States won by Harris </th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Electoral Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Harris Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Trump Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Result</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">45</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">270</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">268</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">45</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">270</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">268</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, MI and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">47</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">272</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">266</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, MI and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">48</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">273</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">265</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">50</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">275</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">263</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">50</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">275</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">263</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, MI and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">55</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">280</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">258</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">56</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">281</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">257</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">56</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">281</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">257</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">58</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">283</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">255</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">60</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">285</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">253</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">61</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">286</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">252</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">61</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">286</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">252</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">287</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">251</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">66</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">291</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">247</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">67</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">292</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">246</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">71</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">296</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">242</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">77</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">302</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">236</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

As noted above, however, Harris cannot win without Georgia if he loses Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Harris wins without Michigan

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
      <th style = "text-align: right;">States won by Harris </th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Electoral Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Harris Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Trump Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Result</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">45</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">270</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">268</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">45</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">270</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">268</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, GA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">48</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">273</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">265</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, GA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">49</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">274</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">264</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, GA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">53</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">278</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">260</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">56</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">281</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">257</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">56</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">281</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">257</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">57</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">282</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">256</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, GA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">59</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">284</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">254</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">61</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">286</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">252</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">287</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">251</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">287</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">251</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">287</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">251</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">67</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">292</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">246</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">68</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">293</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">245</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">72</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">297</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">241</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">78</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">303</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">235</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

Without both Michigan and Georgia, Harris's only winning path requires winning both Pennsylvania and North Carolina unless he wins Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. There is no winning combination if he loses in each of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan.

Footnotes

  1. Margins of victory are calculated as a candidate's popular vote divided by the combined popular vote for each candidate, neglecting third-party candidates. ↩ ↩2

  2. Swing Watch makes the assumption, unless otherwise stated, that each candidate will win the 49 states and electoral districts, other than the seven swing states, as they did in 2020, with the Electoral College outcome adjusted to the 2020 Census allocation of electoral votes. ↩