All times are eastern and approximate. They are based on the 2020 AP calls. Live updates may be made on election night if there is interest. Limited to free subscribers. (Yes, free. I don't have paid subscriptions.)
Any flips from 2020 could indicate a landslide is in the works
Look for patterns of high turnout
Look for higher than expected margins
Does yes vote lead or trail Blue presidential margin?
Is presidential margin higher than 2020's 17%, possibly due to combined turnout, enthusiasm effect?
This is metro Omaha, expected to go Blue. If not, Harris can't win with only the Blue Wall
Split between pro and fake-pro measures and any difference between votes combined with the presidential volume may shed some light on remaining strength of so-called "double haters"
If presidential margin reduced below 10% may provide sense of impact of women's vote nationwide
Same considerations as NE
Same considerations on effect of abortion issue
If Blue margin greater than 7%, suggests added strength since 2020
If Blue margin greater than 13%, suggests added strength since 2020
Jon Tester(D) Senate race Abortion initiate, same considerations as NE and SD
Sherrod Brown(D) Senate race
Abortion initiative requires 60% vote, which may require higher-than-normal turnout—watch volume differential with presidential and whether Blue has higher-than-expected performance
If Cruz should be winning, does he lead Trump?
Size of margin <= 1/2 percent is automatic recount
Abortion differentials
Does yes vote lead or trail Blue presidential margin?
Is presidential margin higher than 2020's 2%, possibly due to combined turnout, enthusiasm effect?
If Trump takes again, is his margin much lower than 2020's 3%?
If margin less than 1% there will be a recount requested, which has to be no later than the next business day after all results have been reported to the Wisconsin Election Commission. Trump supporters could attempt to delay transmission of results to permit more time.
If Harris loses Wisconsin having already lost Arizona, all of the remaining wins require at least Pennsylvania or Georgia
If Harris loses Michigan having lost Arizona or Wisconsin, she must win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina or Georgia and North Carolina with Nevada and Arizona and Wisconsin.
If Harris wins Pennsylvania having won Michigan and Arizona or Wisconsin, Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for her victory.
If she loses Pennsylvania not having won any state called before this, she loses.
If she loses Pennsylvania, she can still win depending on Georgia and North Carolina and which other states she has won
If she wins both having won Pennsylvania she can win with either Georgia or North Carolina and one of Michigan, Arizona or Wisconsin.
If she loses both Georgia and North Carolina, she will have to have won the Blue Wall states (and Arizona may substitute for Wisconsin)