Late October results

technocrat · Oct 26, 2024 · 9d9bce1 · 9d9bce1
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diff --git a/_assets/data/az.csv b/_assets/data/az.csv
@@ -1,27 +1,31 @@
-InsiderAdvantage 9/29 - 9/30	800 LV	3.0	49	48	Trump +1
-Emerson 9/27 - 9/28	920 LV	3.2	50	47	Trump +3
-KPHO-TV/HighGround 9/26 - 9/29	500 LV	4.4	46	48	Harris +2
-USA Today/Suffolk 9/21 - 9/24	500 LV	4.4	48	42	Trump +6
+Atlas Intel 10/12 - 10/17	1440 LV	3.0	49	49	Tie
 Atlas Intel 9/20 - 9/25	946 LV	3.0	50	49	Trump +1
-Cook Political Report 9/19 - 9/25	409 LV	—	48	50	Harris +2
+Bloomberg 10/16 - 10/20	915 LV	3.0	49	49	Tie 
 Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/25	926 LV	3.0	47	50	Harris +3
+CBS News 10/11 - 10/16	1435 LV	3.3	51	48	Trump +3
+CNN* 8/23 - 8/29	682 LV	4.7	49	44	Trump +5
+Cook Political Report 7/26 - 8/2	435 LV	—	46	48	Harris +2
+Cook Political Report 9/19 - 9/25	409 LV	—	48	50	Harris +2
+Emerson 9/27 - 9/28	920 LV	3.2	50	47	Trump +3
 FOX News 9/20 - 9/24	764 LV	3.5	51	48	Trump +3
-Marist 9/19 - 9/24	1264 LV	3.8	50	49	Trump +1
-Rasmussen Reports 9/19 - 9/22	1071 LV	3.0	49	47	Trump +2
-NY Times/Siena 9/17 - 9/21	713 LV	—	50	45	Trump +5
-The Hill/Emerson 9/15 - 9/18	868 LV	3.3	49	48	Trump +1
-Trafalgar Group (R) 9/11 - 9/12	1088 LV	2.9	47	46	Trump +1
+Fabrizio/Anzalone 9/24 - 10/1	600 LV	4.0	50	48	Trump +2
+GSG/NSOR 9/23 - 9/29	400 LV	4.9	47	48	Harris +1
+InsiderAdvantage 10/20 - 10/21	800 LV	3.0	50	47	Trump +3
 InsiderAdvantage 8/29 - 8/30	800 LV	3.0	49	48	Trump +1
-CNN* 8/23 - 8/29	682 LV	4.7	49	44	Trump +5
-The Hill/Emerson 8/25 - 8/28	720 LV	3.6	50	47	Trump +3
-Rasmussen Reports 8/13 - 8/17	1187 LV	—	47	45	Trump +2
+InsiderAdvantage 9/29 - 9/30	800 LV	3.0	49	48	Trump +1
+KPHO-TV/HighGround 9/26 - 9/29	500 LV	4.4	46	48	Harris +2
+Marist 10/17 - 10/22	1193 LV	3.7	50	49	Trump +1
+Marist 9/19 - 9/24	1264 LV	3.8	50	49	Trump +1
+NY Times/Siena 10/7 - 10/10	808 LV	—	51	46	Trump +5
 NY Times/Siena 8/8 - 8/15	677 LV	—	45	50	Harris +5
-Trafalgar Group (R) 8/6 - 8/8	1000 LV	2.9	48	47	Trump +1
+NY Times/Siena 9/17 - 9/21	713 LV	—	50	45	Trump +5
 PPP (D) 7/29 - 7/30	618 LV	3.9	49	47	Trump +2
-Cook Political Report 7/26 - 8/2	435 LV	—	46	48	Harris +2
-Trafalgar Group (R) 10/10 - 10/13	1090 LV	2.9	48	46	Trump +2
-NY Times/Siena 10/7 - 10/10	808 LV	—	51	46	Trump +5
+Rasmussen Reports 8/13 - 8/17	1187 LV	—	47	45	Trump +2
+Rasmussen Reports 9/19 - 9/22	1071 LV	3.0	49	47	Trump +2
 The Hill/Emerson 10/5 - 10/8	1000 LV	3.0	49	47	Trump +2
-InsiderAdvantage 9/29 - 9/30	800 LV	3.0	49	48	Trump +1
-Fabrizio/Anzalone 9/24 - 10/1	600 LV	4.0	50	48	Trump +2
-KPHO-TV/HighGround 9/26 - 9/29	500 LV	4.4	46	48	Harris +2
+The Hill/Emerson 8/25 - 8/28	720 LV	3.6	50	47	Trump +3
+The Hill/Emerson 9/15 - 9/18	868 LV	3.3	49	48	Trump +1
+Trafalgar Group (R 8/6 - 8/8	1000 LV	2.9	48	47	Trump +1
+Trafalgar Group (R) 10/10 - 10/13	1090 LV	2.9	48	46	Trump +2
+Trafalgar Group (R) 9/11 - 9/12	1088 LV	2.9	47	46	Trump +1
+USA Today/Suffolk 9/21 - 9/24	500 LV	4.4	48	42	Trump +6
diff --git a/_assets/data/ga.csv b/_assets/data/ga.csv
@@ -24,4 +24,6 @@ The Hill/Emerson 10/5 - 10/8	1000 LV	3.0	49	48	Trump +1
 The Hill/Emerson 8/25 - 8/28	800 LV	3.4	48	49	Harris +1
 The Hill/Emerson 9/15 - 9/18	975 LV	3.1	50	47	Trump +3
 Trafalgar Group (R) 10/7 - 10/8	1089 LV	2.9	46	45	Trump +1
+Marist 10/17 - 10/22	1193 LV	3.9	49	49	Tie
+Bloomberg 10/16 - 10/20	914 LV	3.0	50	48	Trump +2
 Trafalgar Group (R) 9/11 - 9/13	1098 LV	2.9	46	45	Trump +1
diff --git a/_assets/data/mi.csv b/_assets/data/mi.csv
@@ -1,26 +1,29 @@
-MIRS/MI News Source 9/30 - 9/30	709 LV	3.7	48	49	Trump +1
-Trafalgar Group (R) 9/28 - 9/30	1086 LV	2.9	45	47	Trump +2
-NY Times/Siena 9/21 - 9/26	688 LV	—	48	47	Harris +1
+AmGreatness/TIPP 8/20 - 8/22	741 LV	3.7	48	46	Harris +2
 Atlas Intel 9/20 - 9/25	918 LV	3.0	47	51	Trump +4
-Cook Political Report 9/19 - 9/25	416 LV	—	51	48	Harris +3
+Bloomberg 10/16 - 10/20	756 LV	4.0	47	50	Harris +3
 Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/25	800 LV	3.0	50	47	Harris +3
-Rasmussen Reports 9/19 - 9/22	1086 LV	3.0	48	48	Tie
-USA Today/Suffolk 9/16 - 9/19	500 LV	4.4	48	45	Harris +3
-The Hill/Emerson 9/15 - 9/18	875 LV	3.2	49	47	Harris +2
-Marist 9/12 - 9/17	1138 LV	3.4	52	47	Harris +5
-Quinnipiac 9/12 - 9/16	905 LV	3.3	51	46	Harris +5
-InsiderAdvantage 9/11 - 9/12	800 LV	3.7	48	49	Trump +1
-MIRS/MI News Source 9/11 - 9/11	580 LV	4.1	48	48	Tie 
 CBS News 9/3 - 9/6	1086 LV	3.6	50	49	Harris +1
-Trafalgar Group (R) 8/28 - 8/30	1089 LV	2.9	47	47	Tie
-The Hill/Emerson 8/25 - 8/28	800 LV	3.4	50	47	Harris +3
-EPIC-MRA 8/23 - 8/26	600 LV	4.0	46	47	Trump +1
-AmGreatness/TIPP 8/20 - 8/22	741 LV	3.7	48	46	Harris +2
-Rasmussen Reports 8/13 - 8/17	1093 LV	—	48	47	Harris +1
-Fabrizio/Anzalone 8/7 - 8/11	600 LV	4.0	48	48	Tie
-InsiderAdvantage 8/6 - 8/8	800 LV	3.4	49	47	Harris +2
 Cook Political Report 7/26 - 8/2	406 LV	—	49	46	Harris +3
+Cook Political Report 9/19 - 9/25	416 LV	—	51	48	Harris +3
+EPIC-MRA 8/23 - 8/26	600 LV	4.0	46	47	Trump +1
 Fabrizio/Anzalone 10/2 - 10/8	600 LV	4.0	49	48	Trump +1
+Fabrizio/Anzalone 8/7 - 8/11	600 LV	4.0	48	48	Tie
 InsiderAdvantage 10/8 - 10/9	800 LV	3.7	48	46	Trump +2
+InsiderAdvantage 8/6 - 8/8	800 LV	3.4	49	47	Harris +2
+InsiderAdvantage 9/11 - 9/12	800 LV	3.7	48	49	Trump +1
+MIRS/MI News Source 9/11 - 9/11	580 LV	4.1	48	48	Tie 
+MIRS/MI News Source 9/30 - 9/30	709 LV	3.7	48	49	Trump +1
+Marist 9/12 - 9/17	1138 LV	3.4	52	47	Harris +5
+NY Times/Siena 9/21 - 9/26	688 LV	—	48	47	Harris +1
+Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/21	1136 LV	2.9	46	50	Harris +4
+Quinnipiac 9/12 - 9/16	905 LV	3.3	51	46	Harris +5
+Rasmussen Reports 8/13 - 8/17	1093 LV	—	48	47	Harris +1
+Rasmussen Reports 9/19 - 9/22	1086 LV	3.0	48	48	Tie
 The Hill/Emerson 10/5 - 10/8	950 LV	3.1	49	49	Tie 
-Quinnipiac 10/3 - 10/7	1007 LV	3.1	51	47	Trump +4 
+The Hill/Emerson 8/25 - 8/28	800 LV	3.4	50	47	Harris +3
+The Hill/Emerson 9/15 - 9/18	875 LV	3.2	49	47	Harris +2
+Trafalgar Group (R) 10/18 - 10/20	1090 LV	2.9	46	44	Trump +2
+Trafalgar Group (R) 8/28 - 8/30	1089 LV	2.9	47	47	Tie
+Trafalgar Group (R) 9/28 - 9/30	1086 LV	2.9	45	47	Trump +2
+USA Today/Suffolk 9/16 - 9/19	500 LV	4.4	48	45	Harris +3
+quinnipiac 10/3 - 10/7	1007 LV	3.1	51	47	Trump +4 
diff --git a/_assets/data/nc.csv b/_assets/data/nc.csv
@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 AmGreatness/TIPP 9/11 - 9/13	973 LV	3.2	49	46	Trump +3
+Bloomberg 10/16 - 10/20	755 LV	4.0	50	49	Trump +1
 Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/25	828 LV	3.0	48	50	Harris +2
 CNN 9/20 - 9/25	931 LV	3.9	49	49	
 Carolina Journal/Cygnal 8/4 - 8/5	600 LV	4.0	47	44	Trump +3
@@ -7,12 +8,16 @@ Cook Political Report 7/26 - 8/2	403 LV	—	47	48	Harris +1
 Cook Political Report 9/19 - 9/25	411 LV	—	49	49	Tie
 East Carolina U. 9/23 - 9/26	1005 LV	3.0	49	47	Trump +2
 East Carolina U.* 8/26 - 8/28	920 LV	3.0	48	47	Trump +1
+Emerson 10/21 - 10/22	950 LV	3.1	50	48	Trump +2
 Emerson 9/27 - 9/28	850 LV	3.3	49	48	Trump +1
 FOX News 9/20 - 9/24	787 LV	3.5	50	49	Trump +1
 Fabrizio/Anzalone 9/11 - 9/17	600 LV	4.0	50	47	Trump +3
 High Point University 9/20 - 9/29	589 LV	4.9	48	48	Tie 
+High Point/SurveyUSA 10/17 - 10/20	1164 RV	3.7	46	47	Harris +1
+InsiderAdvantage 10/19 - 10/20	800 LV	3.5	49	47	Trump +2
 InsiderAdvantage 8/29 - 8/31	800 LV	3.5	49	48	Trump +1
 InsiderAdvantage 9/29 - 9/30	800 LV	3.0	50	49	Trump +1
+Marist 10/17 - 10/22	1226 LV	3.6	50	48	Trump +2
 Marist 9/19 - 9/24	1348 LV	3.7	49	49	Tie
 NY Times/Siena 8/9 - 8/14	655 LV	—	47	49	Harris +2
 NY Times/Siena 9/17 - 9/21	682 LV	—	49	47	Trump +2

diff --git a/_assets/data/nv.csv b/_assets/data/nv.csv
@@ -17,4 +17,4 @@ The Hill/Emerson 8/25 - 8/28	1168 LV	2.8	49	48	Harris +1
 The Hill/Emerson 9/15 - 9/18	895 LV	3.2	48	48	
 Tie Trafalgar Group (R) 9/11 - 9/13	1079 LV	2.9	45	44	Harris +1
 Trafalgar Group (R) 10/10 - 10/13	1088 LV	2.9	45	46	Harris +1
-Trafalgar Group (R) 8/6 - 8/8	1000 LV	2.9	45	48	Trump +3
+Bloomberg 10/16 - 10/20	449 LV	5.0	48	49	Harris 0
diff --git a/_assets/data/pa.csv b/_assets/data/pa.csv
@@ -35,4 +35,7 @@ NY Times/Siena 10/7 - 10/10	857 LV	—	47	50	Harris +3
 AmGreatness/TIPP 10/7 - 10/9	803 LV	3.5	49	48	Trump +1
 The Hill/Emerson 10/5 - 10/8	1000 LV	3.0	49	48	Trump +1
 InsiderAdvantage 10/7 - 10/8	800 LV	3.5	49	47	Trump +2
+Franklin & Marshall 10/9 - 10/20	583 LV	5.0	50	49	Trump +1
+Emerson 10/21 - 10/22	860 LV	3.3	49	48	Trump +1
+Bloomberg 10/16 - 10/20	866 LV	3.0	48	50	Harris +2
 Quinnipiac 10/3 - 10/7	1412 LV	3.1	47	49	Harris +2
diff --git a/_assets/data/wi.csv b/_assets/data/wi.csv
@@ -1,9 +1,11 @@
 AmGreatness/TIPP 8/12 - 8/14	976 LV	3.4	47	47	Tie 
 Atlas Intel 9/20 - 9/25	1077 LV	3.0	48	50	Trump +2
+Bloomberg 10/16 - 10/20	643 LV	4.0	48	48	
 Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/25	785 LV	3.0	51	48	Harris +3
 CBS News 9/3 - 9/6	958 LV	4.0	51	49	Harris +2
 Cook Political Report 7/26 - 8/2	404 LV	—	49	46	Harris +3
 Cook Political Report 9/19 - 9/25	411 LV	—	49	47	Harris +2
+Emerson 10/21 - 10/22	800 LV	3.4	49	48	Trump +1
 Fabrizio/Anzalone 9/11 - 9/14	600 LV	4.0	49	48	Harris +1
 InsiderAdvantage 10/8 - 10/9	800 LV	3.5	48	48	Tie
 InsiderAdvantage 8/6 - 8/8	800 LV	3.4	48	49	Trump +1
@@ -14,13 +16,15 @@ Marquette 8/28 - 9/5	738 LV	4.7	52	48	Harris +4
 Marquette 9/18 - 9/26	798 LV	4.4	52	48	Harris +4
 NY Times/Siena 8/5 - 8/8	661 LV	—	50	46	Harris +4
 NY Times/Siena 9/21 - 9/26	680 LV	—	49	47	Harris +2
+Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/21	1108 LV	2.9	48	48	Tie 
 Quinnipiac 10/3 - 10/7	1073 LV	3.0	47	49	Trump +2
 Quinnipiac 9/12 - 9/16	1075 LV	3.0	49	48	Harris +1
 Rasmussen Reports 8/13 - 8/19	1099 LV	—	48	47	Harris +1
 Rasmussen Reports 9/19 - 9/22	1071 LV	3.0	49	49	Tie 
 The Hill/Emerson 10/5 - 10/8	1000 LV	3.0	49	49	Tie
 The Hill/Emerson 8/25 - 8/28	850 LV	3.3	48	49	Trump +1
 The Hill/Emerson 9/15 - 9/18	1000 LV	3.0	48	49	Trump +1
+Trafalgar Group (R) 10/18 - 10/20	1083 LV	2.9	47	47	Tie 
 Trafalgar Group (R) 8/28 - 8/30	1083 LV	2.9	46	47	Trump +1
 Trafalgar Group (R) 9/28 - 9/30	1079 LV	2.9	46	47	Trump +1
-co/efficient 9/4 - 9/6	917 LV	3.1	47	47	Tie 
+ieo/efficient 9/4 - 9/6	917 LV	3.1	47	47	Tie 
diff --git a/_assets/img/avg_of_avg.png b/_assets/img/avg_of_avg.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/joint.png b/_assets/img/joint.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/AZ_oct2.png b/_assets/img/models/AZ_oct2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/GA_oct2.png b/_assets/img/models/GA_oct2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/MI_oct2.png b/_assets/img/models/MI_oct2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/NC_oct2.png b/_assets/img/models/NC_oct2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/NV_oct2.png b/_assets/img/models/NV_oct2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/PA_oct2.png b/_assets/img/models/PA_oct2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/WI_oct2.png b/_assets/img/models/WI_oct2.png
diff --git a/_assets/objs/AZ_oct2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/AZ_oct2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/GA_oct2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/GA_oct2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/MI_oct2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/MI_oct2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/NC_oct2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/NC_oct2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/NV_oct2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/NV_oct2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/PA_oct2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/PA_oct2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/WI_oct2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/WI_oct2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/aaa.jl b/_assets/scripts/aaa.jl
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+pa = [ 73.0, 53.0, 48.0, 70.0, 71.75 ]
+ga = [ 36.0, 42.0, 18.0, 3.0, 2.97 ]
+nc = [ 30.0, 24.0, 29.0, 16.0, 15.39 ]
+mi = [ 73.0, 82.0, 81.0, 92.0, 92.25 ]
+az = [ 66.0, 29.0, 26.0, 8.0, 8.14 ]
+wi = [ 68.0, 60.0, 81.0, 86.0, 85.11 ]
+nv = [ 25.0, 27.0, 31.0, 55.0, 54.84]
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/avg_of_avg.jl b/_assets/scripts/avg_of_avg.jl
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+using Plots
+pa = [ 73.0, 53.0, 48.0, 70.0, 71.75 ]
+ga = [ 36.0, 42.0, 18.0, 3.0, 2.97 ]
+nc = [ 30.0, 24.0, 29.0, 16.0, 15.39 ]
+mi = [ 73.0, 82.0, 81.0, 92.0, 92.25 ]
+az = [ 66.0, 29.0, 26.0, 8.0, 8.14 ]
+wi = [ 68.0, 60.0, 81.0, 86.0, 85.11 ]
+nv = [ 25.0, 27.0, 31.0, 55.0, 54.84]
+
+p = plot(x, [pa ga nc mi az wi nv], 
+     title="Modeled Likelihood of Harris Win",
+     xlabel="Time Period",
+     ylabel="Likelihood (%)",
+     label=["PA" "GA" "NC" "MI" "AZ" "WI" "NV"],
+     xticks=(1:5, ["early August", "late August", "early September", "late September", "mid October"]),
+     xrotation=45,
+     legend=:topleft,
+     linewidth=2,
+     marker=:circle)
+
+# Add the dashed line at 50
+hline!([50], line=:dash, color=:black, label="Win/Loss Threshold")
+
+# Add text annotations for "Win" and "Loss"
+annotate!([(2.5, 52, ("Win", 10, :black, :center)),
+           (2.5, 48, ("Loss", 10, :black, :center))])
+
+savefig("../img/avg_of_avg.png")
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/blue_paths_graph.png b/_assets/scripts/blue_paths_graph.png
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/blue_winning_paths.png b/_assets/scripts/blue_winning_paths.png
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/date.jl b/_assets/scripts/date.jl
@@ -17,4 +17,8 @@
 prior_month = "sep2"
 mon         =  oct1
 MON         = "oct1"
-Mon         = "oct1"
+Mon         = "oct1"
+prior_month = "oct1"
+mon         =  oct2
+MON         = "oct2"
+Mon         = "oct2"
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/debris/scratch.jl b/_assets/scripts/debris/scratch.jl
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/election_graph.png b/_assets/scripts/election_graph.png
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/impt.jl b/_assets/scripts/impt.jl
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ data       = @chain lines begin
       line = replace(line, r"\t7\/"    => "\tjul\t")
       line = replace(line, r"\t8\/"    => "\taug\t")
       line = replace(line, r"\t9\/"    => "\tsep\t")
-      line = replace(line, r"\t10\/"   => "\toc\t")
+      line = replace(line, r"\t10\/"   => "\toct\t")
       line = replace(line, r"\t11\/"   => "\tnov\t")
       return line
     end, _)
@@ -26,8 +26,9 @@ df = CSV.read(IOBuffer(data_str),
               header        = HEADER,
               missingstring = "—")
 select!(df, Not(:margin))
-
-df.Day = ifelse.(df.Day .> 15, 2, 1)
+# df.Day = parse.(Int,df.Day)
+#df.n   = parse.(Int,df.n)
+df.Day = ifelse.(df.Day .> 18, 2, 1)
 
 df.Date = df.Date .* string.(df.Day)
 

diff --git a/_assets/scripts/joint.jl b/_assets/scripts/joint.jl
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 include("libr.jl")
-mon         = "sep2"
-MON         = "sep2"
-Mon         = "sep2"
+mon         = "oct1"
+MON         = "oct1"
+Mon         = "oct1"
 
 st                   = "AZ"
 deep                 = BSON.load("../objs/$st" * "_" *"$mon" * "_p_sample.bson")
@@ -68,11 +68,11 @@ p1 = Plots.heatmap(corr_matrix, title="State Correlation Heatmap",
 p2 = Plots.bar(state_names, individual_probs, title="Individual State Probabilities", 
          ylabel="Probability > 0.5")
 
-p3 = Plots.plot(1:7, subset_probs, title="Probability of k or more states > 0.5", 
-          xlabel="k", ylabel="Probability", marker=:circle)
-
-Plots.plot(p1, p2, p3, layout=(3,1), size=(800,1200))
+p3 = Plots.plot(1:7, subset_probs, title="Probability of Harris winning k or more states > 0.5", 
+          xlabel="k", ylabel="Probability", marker=:circle, legend = false)
 
+#Plots.plot(p1, p2, p3, layout=(3,1), size=(800,1200))
+Plots.plot(p3)
 # Print results
 println("Individual state probabilities:")
 for (state, prob) in zip(state_names, individual_probs)
@@ -84,4 +84,6 @@ println("\nProbability of all 7 states > 0.5: $(round(all_states_prob, digits=3)
 println("\nSubset probabilities:")
 for k in 1:7
     println("  $k or more states > 0.5: $(round(subset_probs[k], digits=3))")
-end
+end
+
+savefig(p3, "../img/joint.png")